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Why
did Hamas win?
Arguably,
Hamas won because Palestinians were exasperated by Fatah's
corruption and incompetence. Fatah's leaders, who run the
PA since it was founded in 1993, have built a system of cronyism
and nepotism which enriched few and left ordinary citizens
living in dire conditions. Such a system was essentially based
on the atomization of security forces. Having the monopoly
of military force, the leaders of the security units acted
as lords of territorial districts in the land administered
by the PA, often fighting against each other for supremacy.
Moussa Arafat, cousin of late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat,
is the latest famous victim of the power struggle between
rival Palestinian factions that has been shattering the Palestinian
Authority. Despite reiterated calls for reforms from the international
community and donors, Fatah leaders and members always refused
to comply.
Hamas,
instead, has gained during the years a reputation as a clean,
non-corrupt party that is able to deliver results and solve
problems. Hamas did what the PA was expected to do: build
schools and hospitals and provide social services. Unsurprisingly,
Hamas won local municipal elections held in 2005. The reason
is that Hamas members proved to be more effective administrators
than Fatah's. It is now expected to deliver.
Possible consequences. Palestinian Territories The
first consequence of Hamas' victory is that the group will
not disarm. On the contrary, it will be entrusted with the
monopoly of force in the Territories. Arguably, reforming
the security apparatus will nonetheless be one of Hamas' toughest
challenges. Hamas has its own militia, but the PA's several
security forces are dominated by Fatah's loyals. When it forms
the new government, Hamas will - in principle - also take
over the control of those security forces. How will Hamas
integrate them? Unlike Fatah, Hamas has a tight control over
its militants. Will Hamas unify the PA's security forces under
its authority, paradoxically realising what the Fatah-led
PA failed to do? Or will Hamas integrate its own militia in
the PA and keep Fatah's security forces alive and exercise
divide-and-rule control on them?
Israel In view of Israeli political elections to be held on
March 28, observers wonder whether Hamas victory will bring
votes to the Likud to the detriment of Kadima. In light of
the recent shake up in Israeli politics and in the Israeli
society, however, this may not be the case. Israeli analysts
suggest instead that Kadima's unilateralism - which pledges
for Israel to go ahead unilaterally with territorial arrangements
and set up its own borders - could be reinforced, because
of and as opposed to Likud's rigidity - which condition any
withdraw from the Territories to concessions by the Palestinians.
With Hamas taking the lead of Palestinian politics, waiting
for concessions appears a more futile prospect than before.
European Union The EU regards Hamas as a terrorist organization.
Analysts suggest that the EU will likely find a way to deal
with the political wing of Hamas, while shunning the armed
militia wing. Rachel Bronson, senior fellow and director for
Middle East and Gulf studies at the Council on Foreign Relations,
compares the prospective dealing of the EU with Hamas to the
way the EU deals with Hezbollah in Lebanon: 'The Europeans
are now actively reassessing their views on Hamas,' Bronson
says. 'I think they will look for a way to cooperate, and
the Palestinians will look for a way to keep European support.'
In fact, Hamas is on one hand dependent on international aid
to realize its campaign promises to improve social services
in the Palestinian Authority. On the other hand, the EU committed
a great deal of political and financial resources to get the
peace process back on track after the withdrawal from Gaza.
Yet the EU may find it difficult to separate Hamas' political
political wing from the group's armed militias. It was precisely
the impossibility to distinguish between Hamas' two 'souls'
that prompted the EU to put the Islamic Resistance Movement
in the black list of terrorist organizations in September
2003.
E.M.
31-1-2006
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