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The crisis in Gaza. First week
Background
On Sunday, June 25, members of Hamas' military wing killed
two Israeli soldiers and captured one during a cross-border
raid in the Kerem Shalom base, in the south of Israel. On
Tuesday 27, Israeli responded sending IDF units to the Gaza
Strip with the official goal of rescuing Corporal Gilead Shilat.
On the same day, however, Israeli forces arrested dozens of
Hamas cabinet ministers and lawmakers, suggesting that the
Israeli incursion could go beyond the incursion's stated purpose
,rescuing the kidnapped soldier, and involve a direct attack
against members of the Hamas-led PA government.
IDF actions in the Strip
IDF sources indicate that, since Tuesday 27, Israel’s
air force has carried out more than 40 attacks. Only during
the week end, the artillery exploded 500 rounds of fire. The
first Israeli strike in Gaza hit an electricity plant; bridges
and roads in the south of Gaza were also targeted in order
to prevent the possible movement of kidnappers.
The IDF also arrested more than 80 Hamas activists and leaders,
imprisoning about one-third of the Palestinian Legislative
Council. Arrests have been carried out also in the West Bank.
On Saturday night, Israeli forces stepped up the level of
attacks, after IDF rockets hit the office of Palestinian Minister
of Interior Said Siam and, most notably, the office of Prime
Minister Ismail Haniyeh. Reportedly, the IDF had begun targeting
other Hamas Ministers in Gaza, who have gone underground.
Reactions in Israel and among Palestinians
Israelis In Israel, 'to kill
or to kidnap an Israeli, regardless it is a soldier or a civilian,
cannot stand'. During the first week after the adbuction,,
any action, however harsh, in the Gaza Strip, has met with
the approval of the overwhelming majority of the Israeli population,
particularly following the contemporary abduction and killing
of an 18 years old Jewish settler near Ramallah. On Saturday
afternoon, however, members of the Israeli left staged a demonstration
in front of the prime Minister’s house asking for restraint
in the discharge of military operations.
In addition, most Israelis do not understand why, since Israel
left Gaza, Qassam rockets keep on hitting the environs of
Sderot. The incumbent action in Gaza also aims at tackling
this problem: some think Israel should reoccupy Gaza, others
believe Israel should seal off Gaza patrolling all the borders
(and sending the EU mission home); a minority maintains that
Israel should instead dismantle as many settlements as possible
in the West Bank, withdraw to the ‘67 lines, and allow
Palestinians free movement therein.
Palestinians Over 80% of the Palestinian public
- IPCRI reports- has supported the kidnapping of the Israeli
soldier with the hopes that it would lead to a prisoner release.
Israel is holding in its prisons nearly 10,000 Palestinians,
many of which are under 18. This represents a sensitive and
common source of discontent to several Palestinian - extended
- families.
All Palestinians relate the kidnapping, the IDF rescue-related
attacks, the Quassams, the Israeli actions to quash them,
the attacks on Hamas ministers etc… to the enduring
state of occupation of Palestinian territories. This unanimity
of opinion leads Palestinian to downplay the seriousness of
the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier and, above all, of the
Quassams shelling from Israel’s point of view.
Consequences on Israeli and Palestinian politics
The operation in Gaza is seen by the Israeli public as the
first ‘leadership test’ of the duo ‘Olmert-Peretz’.
The term of comparison is Olmert’s predecessor, Ariel
Sharon, whom Israelis had seen as a command in chief in times
of war and in times of 'peace'. In these difficult situations
the public usually wants to see more Israeli strength and
military might. Now Israelis want to see how Olmert, a lawyer,
and above all, Peretz, the first ever Minister of defence
with no IDF position in his curriculum, will perform. Israeli
observers do not exclude that, if the crisis goes out of control,
the government will shrink and fall. Meanwhile Mr. Effie Eitam,
the right wing religious militant has called on the Government
to implement a plan of wholesale executions of Hamas leaders.
Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu has been calling for a massive ground
operation.
On the Palestinian side, the Israeli incursion came at a
time when the Hamas-led Palestinian government and the Fatah
faction seemed close to strike a deal about the issue of the
recognition of Israel, a pre-condition imposed by international
donors for resuming the transfer of financial aid. Both Palestinian
factions claimed in a first moment that a general agreement
had been reached on the so-called ‘prisoners letter’,
which recognises Israel's right to exist in its pre-1967 borders.
But Hamas, whose charter pledges Israel's destruction, later
denied any implicit recognition, Al-Jazeera reports.
According to Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, opinionists forHaaretz,
the crisis is likely to widen an incumbent split which is
affecting Hamas, notably after Haniyeh signed the Prisoners’
document. The signing highlighted Haniyeh‘s lack of
influence over the Hamas military wing and on the hardliners,
headed by Khaled Mashaal in Damascus. It is suggested that
Hamas military wing kept Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in
the dark about Sunday’s attack, and then threw on him
the burden to find a way out to the crisis. Conversely, the
crisis could also provide Mr. Haniyeh with some kind of a
‘bargaining chip’ to be used in the confrontation
between internal and external Hamas leaders, should he succeed
in handling the situation.
What about Syria?
On Wednesday 28, the Israeli prime Minister ordered IDF
warplanes ‘to buzz’ the summer palace of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad. The move, which already occurred
in the past, was seen by some as a way to suggest Israel’s
restlessness about Syria sheltering many radical Palestinian
factions, notably Hamas hard-liner, Khaleed Meshal. Meshal
was credited by Israel to be behind Sunday’s attack
and abduction.
Another view has it that it is much more likely that the operation
was conceived and implemented by the military wing of Hamas
in Gaza, and not on orders from Damascus. But Israel found
it profitable to open, purposefully and only for a few hours,
another front in order to vent out frustration and ease domestic
tension.
Possible exit strategy
A bilateral ceasefire that would include the release of the
kidnapped soldier and a prisoner release that would be gradual
and measured based on the success of the ceasefire (Gershon
Baskin, Co-CEO of IPCRI, the Israel/Palestine Center for Research
and Information)
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